R Muthu Kumar
As the great power rivalry inches it’s way into peace loving Asia, ASEAN should be aware that a multipolar world is more conducive to its model of cooperation. ASEAN is in an important focal position in the Indo-Pacific as the entire contention over the South China Sea washes up on its shores.
Since ASEAN lacked the muscle power to engage in power tussle among super powers, but it devised its way to deal with the emerging China-US rivalry, the Quad, and AUKUS.
And ASEAN should recognise it’s relationship with India which is over 30 long years, and must not hesitate in seeking any partnership with them, not just a donor relationship but partnership that implies mutual responsibilities for global peace.
Russia too saw its full-spectrum engagement with Southeast Asia nations come to their support when the actions against Ukraine started. And Russia had quietly boosted its military ties and diplomatic engagement in Southeast Asia, boosting bilateral exchanges with countries like Indonesia and Thailand.
ASEAN is grossly absent in the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape of the South China Sea (SCS). Even as member state the Philippines locks horns with global giant China in a territorial dispute in the Scarborough Shoal, the bloc and other ASEAN states have largely kept their silence.
So much for ASEAN solidarity. This raises questions about the ongoing ASEAN Community Vision 2025, particularly regarding its pillar of political security, in which members pledge to work together to uphold peace and security in the region. Without this third pillar, the other two being economic and sociocultural, the vision will surely shatter. Both Manila and Beijing are upping their ante in the maritime boundary dispute. Manila is increasingly turning to the United States, with which it has a treaty of alliance, along with Japan and Australia. Last week, the four countries held joint naval and aerial drills in the disputed sea. China, for its part, conducted combat patrols in the area the same week. Going by the rhetorical statements and actions from Beijing and Washington, both sides are beating the drums of war and have chosen the Philippines as the theater for staging their superpower rivalry.
This is simply too close for comfort for ASEAN to maintain its silence and indifference.
US President Joe Biden hosted a summit in Washington last week with Japanese and Philippine leaders in a clear display to Beijing that the US will stand by its allies in the Indo-Pacific.
“Any attack on Philippine aircraft, vessels or armed forces in the South China Sea would invoke our mutual defense treaty,” Biden said, after stressing that Washington’s support for both Japan and the Philippines was “ironclad”. Japan has a similar dispute with China in the East China Sea, but the tension there has not escalated to the same level as in the south. ASEAN’s silence in all this is deafening, and undermines its community vision. The regional bloc has already failed one security and political test by its inability to resolve the Myanmar civil war, now in its fourth year. However, it at least made an attempt to mediate the conflict between the military junta and civilian rebel forces.
When it comes to the maritime dispute between China and the Philippines, ASEAN is too powerless, if not hopeless, to even make the effort.
Understandably, ASEAN cannot be expected to reach a consensus of stance on this one, since each member has its own national interests to pursue in the evolving geopolitical landscape that is increasingly being dictated by China and the US.
Some ASEAN states are already aligning with one or the other, while the others are struggling to remain nonaligned. The Philippines is not the only ASEAN state that has a territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea, so Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia must be watching both closely and anxiously as to how Manila and Beijing are handling their row. While we may have given up on the idea of ASEAN taking any initiatives toward peace in the disputed sea, especially under its current chair Laos, the world still expects Indonesia to do something, with or without ASEAN. Not only is Indonesia the largest country in Southeast Asia, it also has recognition as a rising middle power in its own right as the fourth most populous nation, the world’s third largest democracy and an important global economic player.
These accolades do not come without with some global expectations and responsibilities.
ASEAN exists alongside a range of other diplomatic avenues—bilateral, minilateral, multilateral—that its member states would rely on to secure their interests.
Many nations in this neighborhood like Vietnam to the Philippines to Singapore, fear of Beijing’s growing regional assertiveness has led governments to move closer strategically to the United States.
With conflicts in Red Sea and Middle East the maritime routes in that sector are very risky. Understanding the conflicts many countries including Moscow are looking at ASEAN region with new interest.
