Ex-President’s team mulls new ceasefire plan
-: R Muthu Kumar :-
As the second anniversary of Ukraine-Russia conflict approaches, the time is ripe to take stock of the emerging scenario as America prepares for the next presidential polls.
The support of the US public for Ukraine has been eroding. Increasing numbers of Americans believe that the United States is doing “too much” to support Ukraine. Against this backdrop, there is virtually no chance of obtaining Senate ratification for Ukrainian membership in NATO in the foreseeable future. Instead of making unfulfillable promises, while support for helping Ukraine is still strong, the Washington summit should strive for a long-term programme of security assistance for Ukraine backed by allied pledges and a US commitment enshrined in law.
Donald Trump’s advisers have sent another shock wave across Europe this week by disclosing a plan to have the US deny Article 5 guarantees to members of the alliance that spend less than 2 per cent of GDP on defence, in the event of his victory in the November presidential poll.
The disclosure of this plan, in which Putin sees “some logic”, has occurred less than a week after Trump claimed to have recalled how, while the US President, he told the leader of a “big country” that America would encourage Russia to attack NATO members who underspend on defence. This recollection was disputed by some of Trump’s European counterparts. Nevertheless, Trump’s claim made it resoundingly clear that European members of NATO need to act urgently to defend themselves against Russia.
Donald Trump’s advisers have discussed getting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin around a negotiating table early in a potential second term, according to a February 14 report by Bloomberg. One adviser to Trump said the promise of severing US military aid could help get Zelenskyy – whom Trump has described as “the greatest salesman in history” – to the negotiating table, while the threat of increased US assistance could prompt Russia, according to this news agency’s dispatch. In the meantime, Joe Biden has rejected Putin’s February 9 call to negotiate peace with Ukraine while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied a report that his boss had made a private proposal to the US to freeze the conflict last year.
The US Senate has approved a $ 95 billion national security funding bill including $60 billion in new aid to Ukraine, but the legislation risks languishing in the House of Representatives because of opposition from Trump who wants this aid to be provided in the form of loans.
Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House who is close to Trump, has signalled opposition to the Bill, but also sought, unsuccessfully, talks with Biden on it.
The reality is that without replenishment, Ukraine has enough air defences to last only till March maybe. Ukraine could struggle to conduct counterattacks and will that lead to meek surrender, one wonders.
As the war in Ukraine enters its third year to the angst of global peace lovers, it is clear that Russia is gaining the military upper hand. Recently, Elon Musk told US Republican senators “there is no way in hell” that Putin could lose the war on Ukraine.
There are efforts underway to go around Johnson and pass the bill through a Democratic-led discharge petition. Democrats need to gather at least four signatures from Republicans supportive of Ukraine funding to be able to introduce the petition, which probably wouldn’t happen until the end of the month given the congressional calendar. Its path would still be tricky in the House, given that some Democrats have objected to the Israeli government’s handling of the war in Gaza. Bringing the legislation to the floor through a discharge petition – which requires 218 members to support it.
The recent move by Trump, who is pushing for providing Ukraine aid as a loan, comes as efforts to approve further assistance remain deadlocked in Congress amid a domestic fight over immigration and border policy.
This will go well with American citizens as their opinion is shifting as they feel bad for the Ukrainian people, and for innocent Russians, too, for that matter. Many who were in favour of the US providing funding to Ukraine at the start of the war are now appalled and averse. Many openly express that Zelenskyy has become shamelessly greedy, he’s demanding more and more money for a “war we have no obligation to”!
Trump sensing that enthusiasm for continued funding for Ukraine’s defense is waning among most Americans is going all out to halt further assistances to Ukraine. Maybe this will be the much needed blessing in disguise to see end to a vexing conflict that has created havoc to global trade and peace.
