US fueling Gaza crisis to distract attention
-: R Muthu Kumar :-
Just before dawn of X’Mas, 70 people were killed in an Israeli air attack on Gaza’s Maghazi refugee camp, which a Palestinian Health Ministry spokesperson described as a “massacre”.
The UN Security Council has voted to allow more supplies into the Gaza Strip, but the US and allies have tried to stop it. Israel’s bombardment and ground offensive, however, continues unabated.
Hundreds more have been killed in Gaza since UN Security Council vote for more aid. The new Israeli offensive in Gaza is happening even as Russian President showed signs of an end to the Ukraine crisis!
He quietly signalled his openness to a ceasefire in Ukraine. However, it is unclear if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would accept the deal.
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a “millitary operation” against Ukraine and the US led NATO declared sanctions against Russia. After 23 months, Russia is well and truly heading towards victory in Ukraine. There might be signs of ups and downs for now, but Russia appears to be in a pole position to win the war – may not be any time soon but eventually.
A Russian victory in Ukraine would create a world fundamentally antithetical to US interests and values with an empowered anti-Western coalition. US deterrence power and geopolitical standing will get diminished.
Former senior Russian officials close to the Kremlin as well as other US and international officials said Putin has been signalling since September that he is open to stopping the fight on the current boundary lines.
Of late, Ukraine is not getting much support from the West and the Gaza criis is taking up more of the world’s attention.
The increasing involvement of non-State actors such as the Houthi and Hamas groups in escalating attacks without adequate funding or training seems to indicate the vulnerability of the US, which wanted to dominate the global scenario as the ‘Big Brother’. With some of its allies not keen on further supporting Ukraine, the US seems to be in a dilemma yet causing confusion to distract global attention from its follies.
The Taliban had no Navy or Air Force, yet it forced out the Americans (the mightiest military) from Afghanistan soil. Apart from Hamas, the Houthi militia is turning out to be a big thorn in the Middle East region. The US and it allies are now mulling a multinational task force to address attacks by Iran-aligned Houthis on ships in Red Sea.
Amidst all this global humanitarian crisis, the most unlikely benficiary (which seems dubious under the current complex Mid East conflagration) is China. For almost two years, the United States has been consumed with aiding and arming Ukraine. Now it faces similar commitments to Israel. Meanwhile, Russia is expending its military resources in the draining war in Ukraine. China faces no similar strategic challenges.
Israel-Hamas war in Gaza threatens to spread across the Middle East, with US and Iran facing off in the background. It looks like the Americans are in some ways happy with the global chaos as it distracts attention away from its misdeeds and misdoings. With presidential elections scheduled to be held in November 2024, incumbent US President Joe Biden will be hoping to utilise the current situation to beef up his sagging image.
In the midst of an already turbulent global landscape, a seismic geopolitical crisis is unfolding, with Houthi militants targetting ships on crucial maritime routes. Recent provocations aimed primarily at Western vessels signal a profound shift with the potential to reshape the dynamics of global trade.
Meanwhile, Spain has said it will not join a US-led coalition to protect Red Sea shipping from attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels.
Houthis welcomed Spain’s stance with Deputy Foreign Minister Hussein al-Ezzi saying, “We highly appreciate Spain’s refusal to be drawn into American and British lies on the issue of maritime navigation.”
Amid the fallout from the Ukraine conflict and sanctions, there are clear indications that Russia is consolidating influence not only in the Red Sea but also along other vital maritime arteries, notably the Northern Sea Route.
Now the troubled Bab el-Mandeb passage is only 29 kms or just 16 nautical miles, wide at its narrowest point. Its approaches are bristling with warships: More than 35 from at least 12 nations that do not border the Red Sea are now in positions from which they could reach the strait in less than 24 hours. Nations along its African and Arabian shores have at least as many in their harbours.
Somalia’s Government has created maritime piracy on an unprecedented scale.
At the same time, an increasing number of Russian oil tankers continue to navigate the waters to deliver oil shipments to Asia, adding a layer of complexity to the situation. If substantiated, this selective targeting highlights the geopolitical intricacies in play, positioning maritime trade as a pawn in broader geopolitical maneuvers.
Insights into Russia’s strengthening grip on the Red Sea route amid the Ukraine conflict and sanctions imposed on Moscow paint a picture of calculated geopolitical manoeuvering. With Europe actively seeking alternatives to Russian oil, Moscow’s pivot to increase oil exports to Asia, resulting in a staggering 140% surge in Red Sea oil traffic, underscores its adaptability in the face of changing dynamics.
But when tankers and container ships in the Red Sea started taking hits almost daily, the escalation was undeniable. Many of the world’s biggest shipping companies shifted from going through the Suez Canal to the longer and more expensive route around Africa. Commercial carriers now introduced a $700 surcharge on each container sailing the longer route.
Counting just those laden with Asian manufactured goods heading to Europe, the additional cost is a staggering $2bn per month. That increase gets passed on to the final customers – leading to inflation. In addition, the longer travel will soon cause distribution delays, shortages and general disruption of the economy, which every nation will feel.
The markets demanded action and the US optimistically believed it could assemble a robust force of up to 20 participating nations to carry out Operation Prosperity Guardian, OPG. Within days, high hopes were drowned in refusals. The Pentagon believed that China, a country with major interests in keeping open the sea lanes that ensures exports to Europe, would join in, especially as it already has a self-supported task force of one destroyer and one frigate in the western Indian Ocean.
But Beijing replied that it had no interest in joining the OPG. Refusals also came from major Arab navies straddling Red Sea shores: Saudi Arabia and Egypt. They hinted that they did not want to be seen engaging an Arab country in this situation. US apparently showed understanding for their position, confident that it will have no problem in attracting enough ships.
On top of these refusals, France, Italy and Spain have indicated they will not join a mission under US command – only if it is a European Union or NATO force. That leaves the US with the United Kingdom, Norway, the Netherlands, Greece, Canada and Australia as nations that are still, officially, on board with the OPG.
Can Operation Prosperity Guardian finish task of a simple act of escorting ships through the southern Red Sea!
Meanwhile Washington claims that a drone attack targeting a tanker off the coast of India was “fired from Iran”. The Pentagon openly accused Tehran of the attack.
Tehran rejected this as “worthless” and Iran has repeatedly dismissed US and Israeli accusations that Tehran was involved in attacks by the Houthis.
Now India must move forward carefully as the present situation has all the markings of American misdeeds backfiring and for every recoil it just aimlessly firse a new salvo and brews up more chaos!
