New Delhi can’t afford to antogonise Moscow
-: R Muthu Kumar :-
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba was in India last week on the first visit by a top official from Kyiv since Russia’s actions in February 2022, ahead of a possible international summit soon to advance its blueprint for peace.
His visit comes a week after Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladmir Putin, whom India has so far avoided criticising over the war in Ukraine. Instead, New Delhi, has stressed the need for diplomacy and dialogue on ending the war and has expressed its willingness to contribute to the peace efforts.
Ukraine hopes to hold a summit, without Russian participation, to advance a peace formula that calls among other things for the withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory.
This could well be a tempting trade potential for many Indian firms and arms dealers. The depleting European and American arms and ammunations is a big worry for Ukraine to further continue the advancements of Russian army.
The manufacturers in US and Europe are feeling the pinch of doling out their millitary productions! Even their own army is facing shortage as they have to dispatch them to Ukraine.
But with American politicians decision to stop funds to Ukraine, there is no money flow to be channelled to weapons and ammunition makers.
The Ukrainian Foreign Minister is eager to buy from other countries to keep their barracks reloaded. USSR era weapon making units have trade mark Russian arms, many patented and all these manufacturers are in Russia regions.
Ukraine cannot access these arms and hence scouting for counries that has weapon making capabalities. India has Avadi Tank factory, a creation of Russia, for manufacturing latest battle tanks and also deadly strike missles.
India knows the importance of these weapons and since they were given by Russia unconditinally, New Delhi is morally oblidged not to sell them to groups weilding them against Russia itself.
Whatever the intention of the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro on the Avadi facility, India cannot afford in any way – directly or indirectly – sell the weapon to Kyiv. It will tantamount to very nasty back stabbing and India will lose one of its most friendliest nationd that has extended cooperation through out the thick and thin of many historic occasions of our history after attaining freedom from British rule.
It must be noted that European Union fell short of its pledge to supply one million artillery rounds in 2023, and the United States, Ukraine’s main supplier, is currently unable to send Ukraine any ammunition or weapons as it waits for approval from Congress on budgetary needs.
And in another major shift, Ukrainians are ensuring that a huge portion of weapons are now being bought from privately owned factories. They are sprouting up across the country and rapidly taking over an industry that had been dominated by State-owned companies.
Russia is also India’s biggest arms supplier. Russia is also pumping more money into its defence industry, whose growth has helped buffer its economy from the full brunt of Western sanctions.
Oil revenue is a lifeline for Iranian and Russian economies, but Western sanctions have jeopardised both countries’ ability to ship oil and receive payments. In response, Iran and Russia have redirected oil shipments to China – the world’s largest importer of crude oil. In 2023, China saved a reported 10 billion dollars by purchasing crude oil from sanctioned countries such as Iran and Russia.
Thus oil revenue from China is propping up the Iranian and Russian economies and that helps them manage the stiff sanctions imposed by US and Europe.
Russia’s economy has remained resilient two years into the war in Ukraine and amid trade sanctions, which is now vexing the West. This is in part because Russia has managed to keep up its export targets by pivoting to alternative markets such as India and China.
Russia is working with China, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates on the issue of payments very constructively and taking into account the possibility of pressure from the United States and the European Union, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov revealed recently.
A recent news agency report said that Russia “struggles” to receive payments for oil exports as banks in China, Turkey and the UAE face more severe control when it comes to compliance with US sanctions.
“Since the countries you mentioned are under unprecedented pressure from the financial and other authorities of the USA, as well as the EU, of course, this work is underway. It is carried out discreetly,” Peskov told reporters.
“We work very constructively and intensely with our partners, taking into account the dangers that come from this unprecedented pressure, which surely violates the rules and norms of international trade and economic relations,” he added.
