US, NATO worried as Moscow tightens grip
-: R Muthu Kumar :-
After 675 days of fighting, the war in Ukraine can be safely said that the scales are tipping favorably toward Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia has a absolute numerical advantage over the Ukrainian army when it comes to artillery, tanks and heavy units, especially when fighting in the open rather than in cities, where armour is less effective and big armies must often contend with swift-moving guerrilla offensives.
Russia has an Army that looks good, trains well and never has failed on the battlefield. Ukraine is currently pushing, but it seems increasingly unlikely that they will succeed in breaking through.
Ukraine will continue asking for new weapons from US and NATO member nations. American leaders knew the situation all along but it is indeed mind-boggling that why they are only adding fuel to the burning war cauldron by not allowing the war to simmer down?
As per the current assessment made by experst based on the situation in Ukraine, the war scenario looks set to go on for at least another year,and possibly much longer! Kyiv’s success rests with US Congress passing a vital-but-stalled $ 61.4 billion aid package!
The war seems to be fortifying Russia and there is lot for Russia and its President Putin to cheer about! And to top it all, Russia is adjusting very successfully to harsh sanctions by American-led NATO nations.
The disappointment for United States and its allies are too deep as most non-Western powers – China, India, South Africa, Brazil and others have eagerly replaced Western buyers of Russian goods and refused to go along with sanctions against Moscow. The stand of the non-NATO, non-Western nations has helped Russia survive the harsh sanctions of the Americans and other western powers.
Russian progress in the Ukraine war is further pushing the United States toward a painful choice.
“If we want a prosperous Ukraine with a viable path toward liberal governance and European Union membership, we will have to concede that it cannot be a NATO or US ally, and that this neutral Ukraine must have verifiable limits on the types and quantities of weapons it may hold. If we refuse to agree to those terms, Russia will quite probably turn Ukraine into a dysfunctional wreck incapable of rebuilding itself, allying with the West or constituting a military threat to Russia,” many Western experts have now begun to believe.
Russian progress is not yet evident on the map as the battlelines have not moved appreciably over the past year. At the same time, Ukraine’s counteroffensive failed to break through Russian defences, and Russia has not pushed Ukrainian forces significantly westward. An observer comparing territorial holdings in January 2023 with January 2024 might reasonably conclude that the war has become a stalemate.
Earlier, American President Biden has warned that ending US aid to Kyiv would quickly result in Ukraine’s collapse. Sufficient aid to help Ukraine to stand successfully with a strong defence should therefore continue. But what US policymakers need to understand and honestly acknowledge is that in the absence of a compromise or peace settlement, massive levels of aid will have to continue not just in the coming year, but indefinitely. There is very little realistic chance of the West being able to outlast Russia and force it to accept peace on Ukrainian terms. What does the US actually gain from intervening around the world? Or why are Americans not allowing the world to deal with its own issues? If Europe isn’t willing to support Ukraine at the same level as the US then why would American tax payers support sustained aid to Ukraine?
It’s all about being the world’s super power. If US won’t intervene, American leaders fear China will gladly do so. And part of US’ power and reputation comes from the fact that the leaders have consistently pushed conflicts right from Vietnam, Iraq to Afghanistan without as much as affecting their national economic status.
However on the long-term, being oceans away from a war scenarion doesn’t necessarily mean that the country’s economic and military situation will remain unaffected. There is very little realistic chance of the West being able to outlast Russia and force it to accept peace on Ukrainian terms.
The Kremlin is almost certainly not seeking such a breakthrough, at least not yet. Rather, it is methodically grinding down Ukraine’s capacity not only to wage war, but also to reconstitute a post-war military, by killing and wounding enormous numbers of Ukrainian soldiers and exhausting Ukrainian and Western arms and ammunition. Ukraine is running short of artillery shells, and the US and Europe cannot manufacture replacements quickly enough to meet Ukraine’s needs. Russian barrages of long-range air and missile strikes are increasingly overwhelming the capacity of Ukrainian air defences, and the West simply lacks the ability to continue providing Patriot missiles or other advanced air defense systems.
The stage is all set and clearly visible that relentless military pressure, combined with changing Western political dynamics and a global focus on the Israeli-Hamas war, will drain support for Ukraine in the nearly two-year-old war and force Kyiv to yield to Moscow’s demands.
If the American leaders hesitate to hold talks with Russia since it is the election year in the USA, at least it can urge NATO nations to ease if not totally suspend the Western sanctions against Russia and give a assurance that at least it will be eased if not totally suspended. Putin has repeatedly insisted that Russia is ready to talk, and also that Washington – not Kyiv – makes the key decisions in the war and therefore it is time for Washington to engage in talks as the crisis enters its second anniversary.
As American and Ukrainian military leaders are searching for a new strategy that they can begin executing early next year to revive Kyiv’s fortunes in war against Russia, it is time for US and NATO member nations and European leaders to find ways for peace to decend in the conflict zone that has all the trappings of escalating into an unruly nuke war.
