What actual assembly election results can tell us about 2024?


V.V.S.Manian


This year, the battle for the assembly election has been going on for the past three months in five states. It has cooled down; the final polling ended in Telangana on Thursday. There is a direct fight between BJP and Congress in the three major states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh.

The election of the five state assemblies was a do-or-die for Congress and the BJP; it is an indication of how people will favour the party in the coming general election. It is also an indication of how Modi charisma is revitalized or reversed. 

 Modi has taken these elections as a challenge and shown great enthusiasm in all elections, reaching up to the village folks. Modi did not go to Mizoram and appealed to the voters through video. Apart from Modi and Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and President Nadda have been active in the poll bound states.

The Congress party, aware of its need to survive, has gone out to woo the voters with fabulous freebies. Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul Gandhi, and Priyanka Gandhi took the lead for Congress. Sonia Gandhi, who was mostly absent, aired a video on the last day of the campaign in Telangana, where they expect a positive result.

At 7 p.m. on Thursday, all the national television channels started competing with each other and presented the exit poll findings. The five assembly elections are being seen as a semi-final match. The exit polls project the BJP as ahead in MP, Rajasthan and an advantage to Congress in Chhattisgarh and Telangana. It is a close neck-to-neck race in MP and Rajasthan, and we will have to watch who wins the photo-finish race. If the BJP wins in these two states, it is an indication that the BJP will make it to the center. The surprise prediction is the Telangana state, where Congress is visualized to beat KCR-led BRS, which has been in power for 10 years. In Mizoram, the Zoram People Movement is in a close fight with the Mizo National Front, with the Congress and BJP lagging behind. The suspense will be over on December 3rd.

Eye on the Lok Sabha

Without exception, the two national political parties competed with each other to project how much they were interested in serving the people if they won the Lok Sabha election. Prime Minister Modi’s announcement of the decision to give free food grains to 81 crore people across the country for the next five years shows his eye on the Lok Sabha elections. The Congress hurled “revda” on the voter campaign.

In these election campaigns, the usual issue of corruption among the governments in these four states was highlighted. The BJP added Hindutva to it. Voter’s perceptions of these issues will be known only on Sunday.

As of now, it appears that BJP will make it both in MP and Rajasthan. If it happens, BJP will make it to Delhi. For the INDIA alliance, it would perhaps be the beginning of an end, as many regional parties may not give support and also demand a major share of Lok Sabha seats. If the outcome of the results turns the other way around—that Congress wins MP, Rajasthan, and Telangana—it will be a big boost to the INDIA alliance.

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